Canada’s ‘Leaky Bucket’ Exodus Deepens : Report

By Mata Press Service

Canada is losing many of the highly skilled newcomers it works hardest to attract, according to a sweeping new study that raises concerns about the country’s long-term economic competitiveness at a time of deepening labour shortages.

The report, The Leaky Bucket 2025: Retention Trends in Highly Skilled Immigrants and In-Demand Occupations, released by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) and the Conference Board of Canada, draws on 40 years of longitudinal data to reveal that one in five immigrants leave Canada within 25 years of arrival, and many exit far sooner.

The loss is most acute in the first five years, a period that’s supposed to anchor newcomers into the workforce, settlement systems and their communities.

The picture that emerges is stark. Canada has built one of the world’s most sophisticated talent-attraction models, designed to bring in engineers, healthcare workers, scientists, ICT professionals and senior managers. Yet these are the very groups leaving at the highest rates.

“Canada wins when talented people choose to play for our team,” said Daniel Bernhard, CEO of the ICC. “But this research shows that too many of the people we most need are packing up and leaving. They can only contribute to Canada’s success if we can keep them and their talents in the country.”

The data backs him up. Immigrants with doctorates are almost twice as likely to leave as those with only a bachelor’s degree. High-skilled workers depart at twice the rate of those in low-skilled jobs. Senior managers, including those in construction, healthcare, trade and business, top the list, with more than a third leaving within 25 years.

The trend extends across sectors central to Canada’s growth plans.

ICT professionals, software developers, engineers and architecture managers all show elevated departure rates. Healthcare is feeling the pressure as well. Therapy and assessment professionals, dentists, optometrists and audiologists face short-term departure risks that are among the highest in the study.

The reasons are rooted in labour-market realities.

The report shows a clear link between income stagnation and onward migration. Newcomers whose earnings fail to grow are far more likely to leave. For doctorate-holders, stagnant or declining incomes make them nearly three times more likely to depart. For master ''s-level immigrants, the risk doubles.

Unemployment is another trigger. Newcomers with graduate degrees who experience a period of joblessness show sharply higher exit rates than those with more modest educational backgrounds. Many highly trained professionals are over-represented in licensing bottlenecks, credential-recognition delays and entry-level jobs that bear little resemblance to their qualifications. The report suggests this mismatch plays a major role in pushing globally mobile talent elsewhere.

Regional retention gaps add another layer. Atlantic Canada faces the steepest challenge, with more than a third of its immigrants eventually leaving, which is the highest rate in the country.

British Columbia and Quebec follow closely. Ontario and the Prairies fare better but are not immune. Perhaps most telling is the finding that 83 per cent of immigrants who leave Canada do so directly from the province where they first landed. Few relocate within the country in search of better prospects before choosing to leave altogether.

The cumulative effect of these patterns comes at a critical moment.

Canada’s population growth has been driven almost entirely by immigration, yet the federal government has reduced its immigration targets by up to 24 per cent beginning in 2025. The report warns that without strong retention, these cuts will magnify labour shortages, slow innovation, and weaken economic output for years.

“Reducing immigration while retention declines means we’ll just keep pouring water into the same leaky bucket,” Bernhard said. “When the most talented immigrants leave, our needs don’t leave with them.”

The authors outline a series of steps to address the challenge. At the top of the list is a national retention strategy — something Canada has never had — that tracks outcomes, sets measurable goals and aligns governments, employers and settlement organizations around solutions.

Other recommendations include modernized settlement programs aimed at highly skilled workers; targeted retention strategies for occupations with the greatest labour shortages; streamlined licensing and credential-recognition pathways; and employer supports that build belonging, mentorship and career mobility.

The report also highlights the role of employers. Many newcomers arrive with job offers, but the data shows that early underemployment, isolation in the workplace and limited advancement opportunities can undermine long-term retention. The study points to the need for personalized settlement plans, onboarding supports and clearer internal pathways for professional growth.

The ICC, whose Canoo app provides cultural and community access for newcomers, argues that building a sense of belonging is as important as addressing labour-market barriers.

Since 2010, more than 940,000 newcomers have joined the platform, which is a sign of both the need and the potential for community-building efforts to support retention.

For now, the message from the report is clear: Canada does not have a problem attracting talent. It has a problem keeping it. And unless the country finds a way to plug that leak, the consequences will ripple across the economy, the labour market and the country’s long-term competitiveness.

Some of the weakest new Canadian retention rates

· Business and finance managers – highest long-term departure rate: 32% leave within 25 years.

· ICT professionals – 17% to 21% leave within 15 to 25 years.

· Engineering and architecture managers – up to 15% leave within 25 years.

· Therapy and assessment professionals – 8% leave within five years; 16% within 25.