Emigration Surges, Immigration Shrinks

By Mata Press Service

Canada’s population growth has nearly ground to a halt, driven by a sharp slowdown in immigration, a rising number of emigrants, and more deaths than births.

According to Statistics Canada’s latest quarterly update, the country added just 20,107 people between January and April 2025, bringing the total population to 41,548,787. It marks the second-slowest growth rate since modern records began in 1946, surpassed only by the deep freeze of the early pandemic in 2020.

This is now the sixth straight quarter of slowing growth, a trend largely fuelled by federal policy changes that have curbed both temporary and permanent immigration. But there’s another side to the equation: more people are leaving Canada.

During the first three months of 2025, 27,086 Canadian citizens and permanent residents officially emigrated—StatCan’s highest first-quarter figure in five years. The number of people departing has been inching up since COVID-19 restrictions eased. In the same quarter of 2022, 25,394 people left the country. That figure rose to 25,536 in 2023, then 26,293 in early 2024, before reaching the current peak.

While not as high as emigration levels seen in 2017 or 2018, when departures exceeded 30,000 in a single quarter, the upward trajectory is significant. A detailed StatCan report from 2024 reveals that among immigrants admitted between 1982 and 2017, 5.1 per cent left within five years of arriving. That number jumped to 17.5 per cent after 20 years in Canada.

Most do not report their destination or reasons for leaving, but the agency has identified patterns based on education level, family structure, and country of origin.

Immigrants from Taiwan, the United States, France, Hong Kong and Lebanon are more likely to leave, while those from the Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Jamaica are more likely to stay. Those without children are substantially more likely to emigrate, especially if they are over 65. Investors and entrepreneurs also show a higher tendency to depart compared to caregivers and refugees.

Higher education levels are another indicator—more educated individuals are generally more mobile. Many non-permanent residents who arrive as international students are among those most likely to leave after their studies are complete.

StatCan says the reasons for leaving are diverse. Some face economic barriers or difficulty integrating into the labour market, while others leave due to family ties abroad, the death of a loved one, or dissatisfaction with Canada’s climate, culture or languages. For some, returning home was always part of the plan.

As global transportation and communication become easier, mobility is becoming a strategy, not a failure to settle. Despite rising emigration, immigration still accounts for all of Canada’s net population growth—but even that is declining. Permanent immigration in the first quarter totalled 104,256, the lowest Q1 number in four years. Until recently, Ottawa had planned to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025. But those targets were scaled back in late 2024 as part of a push to ease pressure on housing, healthcare and infrastructure. Immigration levels are still higher than they were before 2022, but the change is now being felt. Every province and territory except Newfoundland and Labrador, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut admitted fewer immigrants in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

More striking is the drop in non-permanent residents, a category that includes international students, temporary foreign workers, and refugee claimants. As of April 1, there were 2,959,825 non-permanent residents in Canada—7.1 per cent of the total population. That’s down from a peak of 7.4 per cent in October 2024.

It also marks the largest quarterly decline outside the COVID lockdown era. The drop was led by international students. The number of people in Canada holding only a study permit fell by 53,669 in the first three months of 2025. Ontario lost 30,160 students. British Columbia saw a decline of 11,742. The decrease is unusual for this time of year, when study permit numbers typically rise. The number of people holding only a work permit remained stable at 1,453,481.

  Meanwhile, asylum claimants and protected persons continued to climb for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, reaching a record 470,029.

Natural population change—births minus deaths—also worked against overall growth. In Q1 2025, deaths exceeded births by 5,628. This marks the third consecutive year of natural population decline, a function of lower fertility and an aging population. StatCan noted that death rates tend to rise during the winter months, which may have compounded the decline. But the broader issue is demographic: Canada’s fertility rate hit a record low of 1.33 children per woman in 2022, and that trend is continuing. Without immigration, the country’s population would have shrunk.

The latest figures also reveal a geographic shift. Ontario and British Columbia, the two most populous provinces, both saw their largest quarterly population declines since comparable data began in 1951. Ontario’s population shrank by 5,664, and B.C.’s dropped by 2,357. Quebec declined by 1,013. Newfoundland and Labrador lost 115 residents, while Yukon fell by 15. These losses are small in percentage terms but historically significant. Since 1951, Ontario and B.C. have only recorded three quarters of negative population growth. Alberta, by contrast, continues to pull in newcomers from across the country. It posted a net gain of 20,562 people in Q1, accounting for nearly all of Canada’s total growth. Alberta has now led provincial population growth for eleven consecutive quarters. Elsewhere, Prince Edward Island added 749 people, the Northwest Territories gained 168, and Nunavut grew by 158.

StatCan attributes Alberta’s growth to a combination of higher immigration, strong natural increase, and the country’s largest interprovincial migration inflow—7,176 people moved there from other provinces in the quarter. While interprovincial mobility has slowed nationally, Albertans continue to benefit from lower housing costs and a stronger job market compared to other major regions.

The overall picture is one of a population in flux. Immigration, once the country’s primary engine of growth, is now sputtering under federal caps and shifting global patterns. At the same time, more people are choosing to leave, and fewer are being born. As the country continues to debate housing shortages, labour gaps, and long-term economic growth, the data shows a clear shift: Canada is no longer growing at the rate it once was. And unless immigration levels rebound or natural increase returns—which appears unlikely in the short term—the country may soon enter an era of sustained demographic stagnation, say experts.