A close race for the presidency | TheFilipinopost.com | Philippine newspaper from Vancouver BC for the Filipino, Filipina, Pinoy, Philippines

A close race for the presidency

The Philippine presidential elections next year will be one of the closest fought in history and will be won by the candidate who has the biggest campaign budget and ground-level network, analysts forecast.

About a half-dozen candidates are expected to be in the race for the May 2010 elections to replace President Gloria Arroyo and lead The Philippines for the next six years.

"This is going to be one of the closest political contests in Philippine history," predicts Earl Parreno, an analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms. "Based on initial public opinion polls, we don’t really see any runaway candidate. Next year’s contest might be decided by less than one million votes (out of a 40-million electorate) so the candidate with vast resources and network would really have a clear edge."

The main likely candidates are:

Senator Manuel Villar. Perhaps the best placed in terms of money, he is a self-made billionaire and controls real estate firm Vista Land and Lifescapes. In politics for 17 years, he says his experience of running a company will be key to a successful presidency.

Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas. Called the intelligent man’s candidate, Roxas is a former Wall Street banker and the grandson of a former president. He has served as trade secretary in two cabinets. His mother belongs to the wealthy Araneta clan, which owns a large chunk of Manila real estate.

Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero. Not yet 40, he is frequently compared to U.S. President Barack Obama and is banking on his charisma and the large number of young voters to win. He is seeking the backing of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, headed by San Miguel Corporation chairman Eduardo Cojuangco.

Senator Loren Legarda. The only woman among likely candidates, she won the most number of votes in senatorial elections in 2007, a good indicator of national appeal. A former cover girl and television news reader, she wants to be the country’s first "green" president.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who says he is waiting for Arroyo’s approval to contest. If he gets that, he will get the support of the powerful Lakas-Kampi ruling coalition’s electoral machine, but may also inherit Arroyo’s unpopularity. He is also nephew to former Philippine president Corazon Aquino.

Vice-President Manuel "Noli" de Castro, who is consistently high in opinion polls but has refused to indicate whether he will be a candidate. He has rarely spoken publicly about serious issues, but enjoys wide popularity because of his career as a radio and television news anchor.

Analysts say a good campaign could cost $75 million to $100 million, a huge sum in The Philippines, and a loyal network will be essential for a candidate looking to win.