Manila’s bus hijack debacle reflects a nation’s malaise

Guest commentary
By Daniel Wagner

For many years pundits have commented that the Philippines appears to be heading backward economically and politically, while many other Asian countries barrel toward middle-income status and have demonstrably maturing democracies.
Yes, other countries also have disputed elections, struggle to achieve sustainable economic growth, and their leaders do and say questionable things. There are recent examples of political turmoil and economic hardship not only in Asia, but throughout the world.
The difference here is many of the countries experiencing political instability and economic dislocation don’t have the things the Philippines has, such as agricultural self-sufficiency, a high literacy rate, and a largely homogeneous population. One Asian country that possesses these qualities -- Indonesia -- has managed to transcend monumental political turmoil and an indigenous terrorism problem, get on the path to democracy, stay there, and become a darling of the international investment community. The Philippines was the pearl of the orient in the 1960s. Why can’t it turn its situation around now?
At least part of the answer is that in spite of all the things the Philippines has going for it, its people didn’t demand enough of themselves, or of their government. Political apathy and a willingness to accept a low common denominator of performance have taken their toll on the psyche of the Philippine people. So much so, that it is easy to come to the conclusion that some Filipinos no longer really care about the political environment in which they live, or what ethical standard may be required to get the job done.
Filipinos should not therefore be surprised that the Philippine police continued to negotiate with the hijacker of the Chinese tourist bus recently well after a reasonable period of time had passed, negotiations had failed, and the lives of the tourists were clearly in jeopardy. Police from a variety of other nations would have simply killed him at the first opportunity, regardless of the fact that he was a former colleague. The Philippine SWAT team was trained to get the results that were required, but they failed to do so. Why?
Because their priorities appear to have been misaligned, and the event turned into a media circus. Where else in the world would the media frenzy have been allowed to grow as it did, and where else would the gunman have been allowed to watch himself on the bus television? The safety of the hostages should have been paramount -- not the fanciful notion that a man who is desperate enough to take hostages would somehow come to his senses at the height of the crisis.
The results of events like this are unfortunately consistent with the expectations many people have of performance in other areas in the Philippines. Politically, the Philippines has descended into an ongoing competition between political dynasties: Marcos, Arroyo, and yes, Aquino. Do Filipinos continue to vote them in election after election because of a perceived lack of viable alternatives, because of political apathy, because they have no expectations that anything will change, or a combination of all these reasons? What does doing so say about the country’s future? Nothing good.
Economically, the country is more dependent on remittances from its overseas workers and revenues generated from call centers than it is from manufacturing, or the development of an indigenous marketplace, and it is too dependent on the export of commodities that are subject to the whims of the global market. Some Filipinos may be inclined to believe that because the Philippines is projected to have a 6% growth rate this year that somehow things have changed -- but they have not. The country remains chronically challenged by its inability to create a sustainable economic foundation, a meaningful tax base, and a truly diversified source of revenue.
While much of Asia is progressing and has a good or improving story to tell, the Philippines seems to be standing still. When the international business community thinks of dynamic Asian economies, a multitude of other countries top the list, with the Philippines lagging behind both in terms of economic statistics, and equally importantly, people’s perception. At the root of this dilemma are Filipinos’ own perception of themselves. Filipinos don’t have a fragile psyche or lack capability -- quite the contrary. But they seem to have settled for the status quo, preventing them from breaking the cycle of corruption and nepotism that has kept them down for so long.
President Aquino promised to put an end to nepotism and corruption in government. The people should make sure he does this, but they should at the same time ensure that they practice what he preaches. If the Philippines wants to get its act together and live up to its potential, it needs to demand more of itself. It can achieve this by stopping making excuses for its failures, ending its acceptance of the lowest common denominator, pulling itself up by its boot straps, and moving forward.

Daniel Wagner is managing director of Country Risk Solutions (CRS), a political and economic risk consultancy based in Connecticut (USA). An authority on political risk insurance and analysis, he has 15 years of underwriting experience with AIG, the Asian Development Bank,GE, and the World Bank Group.